Tuesday, August 31, 2021

Will paradigm shift away from "getting tested" after exposure for vaccinated people, after all? Are we accepting that COVID will be endemic after all?

 

commuter station, VA, 2021-8

John Campbell’s fireside chat today on YouTube (he calls it an “important announcement”) talks about a paradigm shift in expectations of control of Covid.

Now, almost everyone will be “infected”, even the vaccinated.  The shift turns toward actual illness, as is the case with other endemic infections like influenza.

Hopefully, with most fully vaccinated people, an “infection” will product specific additional immunity to that specific strain (like Delta) because of exposure to the exact proteins of the strain.

But the risk is for some people infection may be more serious and long Covid might still be possible.

The idea of expecting vaccinated people to be tested after exposures when they have no symptoms may lose traction.  Right now, the moral incentive to be tested to protect others can be disruptive because you could be forced to isolate for 10 days even if not ill.  Furthermore, Delta is so contagious, at least in terms of producing “infection” that even automated contact tracing sounds less relevant.

Yet today there was still a lot of discussion on Michael Mina’s Twitter feed of scaling up to have everyone taking rapid tests all the time, especially if other variants start to spread.  So maybe not everyone buys Campbell’s idea.  

Quartz, with an essay by Clarissa Diaz, provides a perspective based on experience in Iceland.

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