Friday, June 11, 2021

People should get vaccinated, even at a miniscule personal risk in their own circumstances


NIH 2015-3

I wanted to share an op-ed on CNN by David Holtgrave, “The Covid19 Delta Variant poses a threat to our return to ‘normal’”.   

The Pfizer vaccine is 88% effective with both doses, but less than 40% with one.  Pfizer has been 93% effective against the Alpha variant.

So the large number of unvaccinated or partially vaccinated people in the US raises the risk of outbreaks and the renewal of restrictions, especially against businesses that need to have people assemble indoors (for example indoor concerts).

Individual young adult males could well feel pressured.  Some may feel that they can avoid exposure entirely with enough care and feel that even a tiny risk of myocarditis (even temporary, after the second dose of Pfizer or Moderna) is not warranted by a “greater good” for everyone.  Possibly T-cell blood tests could be developed to offer and some young men might find they already have considerable immunity through variolation over a year.  But their risks specifically to variants like Delta might remain even if they were reasonably immune to the older variants of 2020. 

The smallpox vaccine in the past sometimes led to mild myocarditis in a few young adults.

The physician in the video suggests that some vaccines should be chosen for certain populations.  Possibly the one shot JJ for younger men (but we don’t know yet how well JJ works against Delta; that should change soon).

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