Many states are requiring individuals who arrive from “hot
spot” states to self-quarantine for fourteen days upon arrival. Normal health department rules (taught in
contact tracing courses) maintain that people may transmit the coronavirus
within the two days before showing symptoms. But it’s also unclear how long
someone has before showing symptoms, which may be a median of 5 days, but in
extreme cases longer than 14 days. It’s particularly unclear how long people who
never have symptoms could transmit the disease;
some have internal organ damage or clots anyway, but some may be truly
protected by their T-cells except for superficial nasal infection they could
still transmit to others.
Hot spot states are those with a 7-day moving average
of 10 new cases per 100000 residents per day, or a 10% 7 day rolling average of
a daily positive test result. The first
provision would logically mean that 3.65% of a state’s residents get infected a
year. The second would logically mean
that either there are not enough tests are given (of people with few or no
symptoms) or that really a lot of people are infected.
With widespread efficient mandatory testing of entire areas
(maybe condo or apartment buildings) at some point in the future, we could find
out that many more people are infected but totally asymptomatic (because of the
way T-cells work). It is unclear how
these standards for quarantine would hold up, as ironically a much higher
percentage of asymptomatic positives or previous infections would mean the
disease is much less deadly after all.
But private citizens, given the huge fines for breaking
quarantine especially in NYC (now with random entry checkpoints), are personally paying for the poor performance of
other residents in some areas of their states, because of the uncertainty for
public safety the presence of their bodies and breath presents, by inference. That is a common moral theory of the Left,
that people share personally the reparative penalties applies to their groups.
But you can also look at this as wartime, with arguments akin to conscription for enforcing quarantines.
Will this stand up in court if challenged?
In any case, let’s hope this all goes away when
theaters and large venues can open again in NYC. No one can afford the two weeks to go an
event in another city.
I’ve learned of another movie pitch contest to be held
in Las Vegas in October, but there is no way I can agree to travel to any such
event given COVID and the uncertainty of quarantine traps.
Gov. Cuomo's site.
ABC7NJ report.
The Hill's op-ed against the practice.
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