Sunday, March 22, 2020

Covid19 is looking a lot more dangerous than the public (and Trump) realizes; "Hammer and Dance" could be the only way to save western democracy

This article by De. Tom Frieden, former CDC director, greeted me on my cell phone early this morning as I got up,  There’s a long war ahead”. 

There was another CNN article about how we had slid into the mud and depression in just 30 days. WSJ gives predictions, and as of Sunday night Congress is stalled (over whom to bail out) with some members of Congress quarantined. 

The article hits on how infectious the virus is, on how some of the mild cases still result in pneumonia. And there are scattered reports of younger people suddenly going into respiratory arrest, as with this ProPublica report from New Orleans. 
There is more work recently on survival of the virus on surfaces or in the air, after a person leaves; this could make the effectiveness of social distancing less.  The danger to others comes when they touch their faces and eyes after coming into contact with a surface, but it’s hard to say how important this is in practice.
Here’s another CNN story and video on what it’s like. 

Then, Robinson Meyer and Alexis C. Madrigal describe an American Catastrophe March 21 in the Atlantic
Bruce Lee in Forbes March 18 points to studies, showing about 18% of the infected people on the Diamond Princess remained asymptomatic. Since this was an older population, it’s reasonable to wonder if about 25% of the cases in general are totally asymptomatic, because of lighter dose, and maybe luckier genetics.
Still that more or less implies about half of adults infected may have very mild or no illness, but for the rest it could be a punishing and possibly fatal experience.
I’ll share Tomas Pueyo’s “Hammer and Dance” essay right here. The first essay was on the Books blog (March 13).  I think Pueyo has it right.  It’s going to a long haul for two years, or we have a vaccine. Maybe no baseball this year.

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