Friday, October 05, 2012
Reputable scientists disagree on possible threat of solar storms, even EMP to a technology-driven world
I’ve heard “speak” of the idea that Oak Ridge
National Laboratory has done some work on the robustness (or lack thereof) of
the power grid in the face of big solar storms and possibly enemy-generated
electromagnetic pulse, and found some more links that suggest that scientists
are not in complete agreement that the extreme results (as in the book “One
Second After”, books blog July 20).
Some sources say that electronic equipment that is
not in use might not be affected; others say that equipment not plugged in
would be OK (as after direct lightning strikes). Others say that equipment placed in metal
“faraday” containers would be shielded.
People would not be affected, unless in contact with metal leading to the outside (which sounds like the
advice for lightning). Not all cars
would fail, but some circuitry in some cars would fail.
Technology has been increasingly miniaturized in the
past ten years, and this would seem to make electronics more vulnerable,
although if they are smaller they can be shielded.
I’ve wondered, when driving, if nearby high tension
power lines, which can generated magnetic fields, could affect my laptop
computers or iPad. So far they never
have, despite sometimes driving for miles near them along Interstate highways.
There’s a reference back in 1989 by Duncan Long
“Protecting Yourself from EMP” that gives some practical advice, but
electronics could have become more sensitive since then (link).
Here’s a list of “EMP-myths” that seems to be more
recent, at a website called “Future Science”, link.
Note that solar storms normally do not jeopardize
cars or consumer electronics, and the arguments about Faraday cages covers
become irrelevant. (They might
jeopardize electronics in space, on the Moon or on Mars.) Storms caused by supernovae light years away
could cause EMP effects and maybe even mass extinctions, but they may occur
only once every few billion years.
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (TN) does have some
publications on the risk to power grids from EMP and solar storms. There is an Executive Summary (six pages, 2010) with a map of probable grid
collapse from a “HEMP” event, covering most of the East and the Pacific
Northwest. There is also discussion of
an IEMI weapons, (“Intentional Electromagnetic Interference” means usually a ground device that need not be
nuclear, using weaponry generally only available to the military but that could
conceivably fall into the hands of terrorists or organized criminals, who might be able to make crude
devices, as suggested by Popular Science back in 2001, as well as the movie "Oceans 11"); these devices could
affect power distribution and perhaps electronics in a small area. The Washington Times (a “conservative”
newspaper) has discussed this issue in the past. The link is here.
It may be difficult to separate scare talk from
responsible science on the solar-storm-EMP issue. It is significant because so many of us live
in a world where our personal effectiveness and sense of autonomy (and privacy) depends on technology that we
take for granted (a moral message, perhaps, of the NBC series
“Revolution”). We are in an era where we
need to “get it right” on the amount of investment we need to protect our
infrastructure. And that’s a collective,
policy issue.
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